Trends in College Pricing
College costs exceeding $100,000 annually. Young adults crushed by student loan debt. If you read the news, there's a good chance you're terrified of the cost of college and maybe even questioning if it makes sense for your student to go. The College Board's annual Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid report provides a welcome dose of reality.
Have list prices for college gone up? Absolutely. Four year college tuition at both public and private non-profit colleges has nearly doubled in the two decades since the 1994-95 school year, after adjusting for inflation. And while list prices tuition have nearly doubled on average, the median household income has only increased by 39% when adjusted for inflation. It's easy to assume that college has become less affordable when looking at it this way.
However, over that same time period, student aid increased by 233%, not including Covid relief funds. While that figure includes federal loans, Pell grants and state aid, the biggest increase was in the form of institutional grants. Over $82 billion of institutional grants were doled out in the 2023-24 school year, mostly in the form of tuition discounts.
Looking at the last 10 years, the data is even more interesting. List price tuition at four year public colleges has gone down over the past decade, when adjusted for inflation. In fact, public flagship universities in 45 states had lower in-state tuition and fees in 2024-25 than in 2019-2020 when adjusted for inflation. Meanwhile list price tuition at private non-profit four year colleges has only increased by about 5% over that decade. These are, of course, averages and there are numerous colleges where list prices have increased by larger amounts.
Combine this data with NACUBO's research on college tuition discounts, which shows that the average tuition discount rate for the 2024-25 school year was over 50%, and one might conclude that sizzling headlines aside, college is becoming more affordable, not less. In fact, student loan borrowing and outstanding loan balances are both on the decline as well. Yes, part of that has to do with aggressive loan forgiveness programs over the last few years, but another large part comes from students and parents borrowing less to earn their degrees.
It's unfortunate that our system is as non-transparent as it is, but this is the system we have. Every college offers scholarships and every student is eligible for scholarships. But not every student will be offered scholarships at every college. That means you need to do your homework if you want your student to get scholarships:
Figure out what types of scholarships you're eligible for: need-based or merit. You are eligible for need-based scholarships if your Student Aid Index is less than the cost of college. If your SAI is higher, then you are eligible for merit scholarships. Find out using the Student Aid Estimator (FAFSA) or the College Board's Expected Family Contribution calculator.
Figure out what colleges offer the type of aid you're eligible for so that you apply to ones that are likely to give you a good aid package. Every college has a net price calculator on its website that will give you an estimate of the financial aid you're likely to get. In addition, sites like Collegedata and College Navigator provide visibility into merit scholarship availability.
Research your in-state colleges' scholarship programs to make sure you're on track to be eligible for those. Free community college and dual enrollment programs can be part of your strategy, too.
Talk with your student about your family's college budget and expectations. Do you expect them to contribute to their own college costs? Do you have a budget to help guide their college choices? (Shameless plug: if these conversations are hard for you, pick up a copy of my book, How to Pay for College, which has tons of conversation prompts and suggestions.)
The data paint a pretty clear picture: college has become more, not less, affordable over the past several decades. But it's up to students and families to seek out and choose affordable pathways.
